9. GROWTH, INSTABILITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN BANANA EXPORTS FROM INDIA by R. THULASIRAM AND T. ALAGUMANI

Abstract

Banana is one of the important fruit crops in India contributing 27.82 per cent
of the total world production. The export of fresh banana from India has
increased from Rs.89.56 lakhs in 1994-95 to Rs.156.93 lakhs in 2013-14. In
this paper an attempt was made to quantify the growth, instability and the
changing structure of Indian banana exports. Data for a period of 20 years
from 1994-95 to 2013-14 was collected to estimate Compound Growth Rate
and Coppock’s Instability Index. The results showed that banana exports
registered positive growth and instability has declined in recent years. The
growth of exports to major importing countries recorded a double digit positive
growth rate in terms of quantity. The Markov chain analysis was attempted
through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for
the major banana markets. The major Indian banana export markets were
categorized as stable market (Oman, U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia) and unstable
markets (Kuwait and Bahrain) based on the magnitude of transition
probabilities. It was found that Oman and U.A.E are the loyal markets for
Indian banana in future. The share of importing countries clearly shows that
the Indian banana markets are confined to neighbouring countries and hence
efforts are needed to device suitable strategies to increase the export to these
countries.

KEY WORDS: Export Performance, Compound growth rate, Coppock’s
instability index, Markov Chain Analysis.